Water is a critical resource that must be managed efficiently. However, a substantial amount of water is lost each year due to leaks in Water Distribution Networks (WDNs). This underscores the need for reliable and effective leak detection and localization systems. In recent years, various solutions have been proposed, with data-driven approaches gaining increasing attention due to their superior performance. In this paper, we propose a new method for leak detection. The method is based on water pressure measurements acquired at a series of nodes of a WDN. Our technique is a fully data-driven solution that makes only use of the knowledge of the WDN topology, and a series of pressure data acquisitions obtained in absence of leaks. The proposed solution is based on an feature extractor and a one-class Support Vector Machines (SVM) trained on no-leak data, so that leaks are detected as anomalies. The results achieved on a simulate dataset using the Modena WDN demonstrate that the proposed solution outperforms recent methods for leak detection.

This paper establishes a statistical versus computational trade-off for solving a basic high-dimensional machine learning problem via a basic convex relaxation method. Specifically, we consider the Sparse Principal Component Analysis (Sparse PCA) problem, and the family of Sum-of-Squares (SoS, aka Lasserre/Parillo) convex relaxations.

We consider the following detection problem: given a realization of a symmetric matrix X of dimension n, distinguish between the hypothesis that all upper triangular variables are i.i.d. Gaussians variables with mean 0 and variance 1 and the hypothesis that there is a planted principal submatrix B of dimension L for which all upper triangular variables are i.i.d. Gaussians with mean 1 and variance 1, whereas all other upper triangular elements of X not in B are i.i.d.

Additionally, we demonstrate robustness to perturbations in the test distribution (@R1).

Detection of planted subgraphs in Erdös-Rényi random graphs has been extensively studied, leading to a rich body of results characterizing both statistical and computational thresholds. However, most prior work assumes a purely random generative model, making the resulting algorithms potentially fragile in the face of real-world perturbations. In this work, we initiate the study of semi-random models for the planted subgraph detection problem, wherein an adversary is allowed to remove edges outside the planted subgraph before the graph is revealed to the statistician. Crucially, the statistician remains unaware of which edges have been removed, introducing fundamental challenges to the inference task. We establish fundamental statistical limits for detection under this semi-random model, revealing a sharp dichotomy. Specifically, for planted subgraphs with strongly sub-logarithmic maximum density detection becomes information-theoretically impossible in the presence of an adversary, despite being possible in the classical random model. In stark contrast, for subgraphs with super-logarithmic density, the statistical limits remain essentially unchanged; we prove that the optimal (albeit computationally intractable) likelihood ratio test remains robust. Beyond these statistical boundaries, we design a new computationally efficient and robust detection algorithm, and provide rigorous statistical guarantees for its performance. Our results establish the first robust framework for planted subgraph detection and open new directions in the study of semi-random models, computational-statistical trade-offs, and robustness in graph inference problems.

Bandeira et al. (2022) introduced the Franz-Parisi (FP) criterion for characterizing the computational hard phases in statistical detection problems. The FP criterion, based on an annealed version of the celebrated Franz-Parisi potential from statistical physics, was shown to be equivalent to low-degree polynomial (LDP) lower bounds for Gaussian additive models, thereby connecting two distinct approaches to understanding the computational hardness in statistical inference. In this paper, we propose a refined FP criterion that aims to better capture the geometric "overlap" structure of statistical models. Our main result establishes that this optimized FP criterion is equivalent to Statistical Query (SQ) lower bounds--another foundational framework in computational complexity of statistical inference. Crucially, this equivalence holds under a mild, verifiable assumption satisfied by a broad class of statistical models, including Gaussian additive models, planted sparse models, as well as non-Gaussian component analysis (NGCA), single-index (SI) models, and convex truncation detection settings. For instance, in the case of convex truncation tasks, the assumption is equivalent with the Gaussian correlation inequality (Royen, 2014) from convex geometry. In addition to the above, our equivalence not only unifies and simplifies the derivation of several known SQ lower bounds--such as for the NGCA model (Diakonikolas et al., 2017) and the SI model (Damian et al., 2024)--but also yields new SQ lower bounds of independent interest, including for the computational gaps in mixed sparse linear regression (Arpino et al., 2023) and convex truncation (De et al., 2023).Date: June 13, 2025.

In this paper, we study the problem of multivariate shuffled linear regression, where the correspondence between predictors and responses in a linear model is obfuscated by a latent permutation. Specifically, we investigate the model $Y=\tfrac{1}{\sqrt{1+\sigma^2}}(\Pi_* X Q_* + \sigma Z)$, where $X$ is an $n*d$ standard Gaussian design matrix, $Z$ is an $n*m$ Gaussian noise matrix, $\Pi_*$ is an unknown $n*n$ permutation matrix, and $Q_*$ is an unknown $d*m$ on the Grassmanian manifold satisfying $Q_*^{\top} Q_* = \mathbb I_m$. Consider the hypothesis testing problem of distinguishing this model from the case where $X$ and $Y$ are independent Gaussian random matrices of sizes $n*d$ and $n*m$, respectively. Our results reveal a phase transition phenomenon in the performance of low-degree polynomial algorithms for this task. (1) When $m=o(d)$, we show that all degree-$D$ polynomials fail to distinguish these two models even when $\sigma=0$, provided with $D^4=o\big( \tfrac{d}{m} \big)$. (2) When $m=d$ and $\sigma=\omega(1)$, we show that all degree-$D$ polynomials fail to distinguish these two models provided with $D=o(\sigma)$. (3) When $m=d$ and $\sigma=o(1)$, we show that there exists a constant-degree polynomial that strongly distinguish these two models. These results establish a smooth transition in the effectiveness of low-degree polynomial algorithms for this problem, highlighting the interplay between the dimensions $m$ and $d$, the noise level $\sigma$, and the computational complexity of the testing task.

The problems of detecting and recovering planted structures/subgraphs in Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graphs, have received significant attention over the past three decades, leading to many exciting results and mathematical techniques. However, prior work has largely focused on specific ad hoc planted structures and inferential settings, while a general theory has remained elusive. In this paper, we bridge this gap by investigating the detection of an \emph{arbitrary} planted subgraph $\Gamma = \Gamma_n$ in an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph $\mathcal{G}(n, q_n)$, where the edge probability within $\Gamma$ is $p_n$. We examine both the statistical and computational aspects of this problem and establish the following results. In the dense regime, where the edge probabilities $p_n$ and $q_n$ are fixed, we tightly characterize the information-theoretic and computational thresholds for detecting $\Gamma$, and provide conditions under which a computational-statistical gap arises. Most notably, these thresholds depend on $\Gamma$ only through its number of edges, maximum degree, and maximum subgraph density. Our lower and upper bounds are general and apply to any value of $p_n$ and $q_n$ as functions of $n$. Accordingly, we also analyze the sparse regime where $q_n = \Theta(n^{-\alpha})$ and $p_n-q_n =\Theta(q_n)$, with $\alpha\in[0,2]$, as well as the critical regime where $p_n=1-o(1)$ and $q_n = \Theta(n^{-\alpha})$, both of which have been widely studied, for specific choices of $\Gamma$. For these regimes, we show that our bounds are tight for all planted subgraphs investigated in the literature thus far\textemdash{}and many more. Finally, we identify conditions under which detection undergoes sharp phase transition, where the boundaries at which algorithms succeed or fail shift abruptly as a function of $q_n$.

In this paper, assuming a natural strengthening of the low-degree conjecture, we provide evidence of computational hardness for two problems: (1) the (partial) matching recovery problem in the sparse correlated Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graphs $\mathcal G(n,q;\rho)$ when the edge-density $q=n^{-1+o(1)}$ and the correlation $\rho<\sqrt{\alpha}$ lies below the Otter's threshold, solving a remaining problem in \cite{DDL23+}; (2) the detection problem between the correlated sparse stochastic block model $\mathcal S(n,\tfrac{\lambda}{n};k,\epsilon;s)$ and a pair of independent stochastic block models $\mathcal S(n,\tfrac{\lambda s}{n};k,\epsilon)$ when $\epsilon^2 \lambda s<1$ lies below the Kesten-Stigum (KS) threshold and $s<\sqrt{\alpha}$ lies below the Otter's threshold, solving a remaining problem in \cite{CDGL24+}. One of the main ingredient in our proof is to derive certain forms of \emph{algorithmic contiguity} between two probability measures based on bounds on their low-degree advantage. To be more precise, consider the high-dimensional hypothesis testing problem between two probability measures $\mathbb{P}$ and $\mathbb{Q}$ based on the sample $\mathsf Y$. We show that if the low-degree advantage $\mathsf{Adv}_{\leq D} \big( \frac{\mathrm{d}\mathbb{P}}{\mathrm{d}\mathbb{Q}} \big)=O(1)$, then (assuming the low-degree conjecture) there is no efficient algorithm $\mathcal A$ such that $\mathbb{Q}(\mathcal A(\mathsf Y)=0)=1-o(1)$ and $\mathbb{P}(\mathcal A(\mathsf Y)=1)=\Omega(1)$. This framework provides a useful tool for performing reductions between different inference tasks.